I knew a USAF flight instructor who trained foreign "guest" students: Said washing out the trainee was not an option, not even after mistakes like shutting down an engine in flight.

are you talking about:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush_military_servic...

Given Kuwaiti air force pilots would have dealt with Saudi/US/Iraqi F-15 operators, that seems highly unlikely.

That would be a pretty huge GCI failure

Why would fighter pilot be as nepo-baby compatible as, dunno, actor/actress? Asking truthfully, I'm not american, not in the military, etc.

A remember a very, very, very high % of flight technology (basically flight school) majors in university being in ROTC. Paying for fuel is additional to tuition and it was extremely expensive. A lot of middle and lower class who wanted to be commercial pilots joined the military to get it paid for. No idea how many became fighter jet pilot, I assume most of them got jobs doing something more boring like troop or materials transport.

I would go so far to say as commercial flight is dominated by very rich people who could afford to do the commercial ratings on their own, or middle/lower class people that became military pilots to pay for it.

In almost all countries, military is seen as a "working class" profession, even joining as an officer. I don't think the rich and influential consider it an option for their kids.

Btw fighter pilot is extremely physically taxing. It's not for everyone. Any degree of motion sickness and you're out. Everyone joins the air force wanting to become a fighter pilot but only a small percentage can.

Cool job? Being ordered to drop bombs on schools filled with children doesn't seems like a cool job..

> Guess who gets the cool jobs in these countries?

What do you mean by "these countries"? What you lived in "these countries"? What do you know about 'these countries". It sounds like something someone who can't locate Africa on a globe or thinks "arab" is a nationality would say

>> it's not inconceivable that pilot had never seen an F-15E in the flesh before.

This is such a joke I cant even imagine how you can formulate this thought...

- Exercise Marauder Shield 26.1 (Nov. 2025) "U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft assigned to the 391st Expeditionary Fighter Squadron takeoff during Exercise Marauder Shield in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Nov. 8, 2025. A key element of the exercise was the sharpening of combined fighter capabilities between the U.S. and Kuwait Air Forces. This included joint training exercises and hot-pit refueling operations."

- CENTCOM Bomber Task Force mission (July 2022)

"..During the BTF, two B-52H Stratofortresses, assigned to the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command, conducted theater integration training and operations with a variety of U.S. Air Force, partner and ally aircraft, including F-15/18, RJ-135, E-3, KC-135/10/46, FGR-4, and A-330..."

"The bombers’ flight originated at Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford, England, and flew over the Eastern Mediterranean, Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea before departing the region. The mission included fighter escorts from the Royal Air Force and the Air Forces of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia...."

"...“Communication is critical,” said Wong, who also serves as the Deputy Director of Combat Operations, Combined Air Operations Center. “By enhancing lines of communication, we are able to establish a clear and direct line in real time amongst the Air Operations Centers of all nations participating..."

Kuwaiti air force F/A-18 pilots receive most of their training in the USA so most likely they would have seen some F-15 model in flight. That doesn't rule out a case of target misidentification but it's very odd and suspicious.

>I can assure you from having flown around a lot, if you are wildly outnumbered 3 SU-27 (err, F15) to your 1 F-18 you do not attempt a radar lock you do an IR only attack. The article mentions getting a radar lock first but that is unnecessary for IR guided weapons and in a 3-1 situation will just get you shot down.

Slaving heatseekers to radar is the standard way of employing them. I reckon by "having flown around" you're referring to DCS, which is absolutely unrealistic when it comes to engagements.

>Clearly any passive IR detector thats theorized to exist for years either doesn't exist or doesn't work very well. In theory, a smart enough IR camera should be able to notice something very warm indeed is getting rapidly brighter as it approaches you. In practice, these don't exist, or don't work. "Oh yeah they didn't have those when I was in, but they totally have them now" for the last 30 years. Apparently, not yet in 2026.

MAWS exist and they're employed on a lot of aircraft. I don't believe Strike Eagles have them though. An F-35 would get a missile warning for a heatseeker, it's not science fiction technology for quite a while now.

>I find it unfortunate that people who do this for a living can't legally comment, people who do this for a hobby are not asked or actively ignored despite extensive practical experience, and people who mostly have a grift of looking authoritative for legacy media get automatic blind belief despite sometimes spouting total nonsense.

You don't get practical experience by playing flight simulators, it's not comparable to how planes are employed as weapons systems.

They're not really the same planes, they've been continually upgraded over time. For another example, The B-52 strategic bomber is being used right now and but it was also operational during the Korean war. However, the B-52s flying today are very different than the ones flying back then. Another way to think about it is a computer with an old case but upgraded mb, cpu, and ram.

F-15E Strike Eagles have advanced avionics and can and continue to use advanced missiles. They can serve in multiple roles including target identification, aerial combat, and of course air-to-air interception and ground attack roles.

Same thing with the F-18.

Eventually of course all of these weapons platforms will be phased out, but for the time being they are still extremely useful, and even more so after the more advanced aircraft and other attack vectors have taken out or limited air defense capabilities or the ability for enemy aircraft to intercept these aircraft. Not that they can't handle their own, anyway.

These aircraft are maintained pretty well. They have explicit refresh cycles where they're taken to depots and pretty much torn apart and then rebuilt. The electronics also get refreshed over time with newer components (not just newer versions of old components or refurbished components, but new electronics and computer systems). It's not like they're still frozen in time at whatever version was initially put out 50 years ago.

Much of the F-15E fleet is still in relatively good condition. Most other airframes are even older on average. Over the past couple decades most funding went to more urgent GWOT priorities and almost everything else was under capitalized to the point where older aircraft are literally cracking and falling apart.

The F-15 family is kind of best-in-class still. It is an agile jet with a lot of weapons. As for the E variant, we tend to just run them until the airframe ages out.

The F-15E has received several service upgrades in its lifetime and has served as the base platform for most F-15 variants sold to other nations over the last decade or so. It's far from dated. They make new ones in St. Louis.

Because they still work.

In those countries (i.e., middle eastern countries) power and wealth is usually more connected to gov't and the military rather than independent industries. If you are a nepo-baby, your opportunities will tend to be more gov't/military than celebrity or corporate.

The Sultan bin Salman was the first Arab, first Muslim, and first Royal in space, on the NASA Challenger flight before its fateful flight. He was a fighter pilot for the Saudi Air Force with 1000's of flight hours.

They wouldn't trust a non-family member with weapons that could decapitate the country's kleptocratic monarchy.

Too many nepo babies and too little state owned movie production in the Gulf?

Also flying modern fighter jets is the kind of fun that's typically very hard to buy with money, so you take the opportunity when available.

Sometimes it'll show that while the embed is still loading.

That’s you ad blocker. They’re still up.

Mistaken ID once is conceivable. Twice is not. Three times, with one shot being within visual range, is malice.

My bet is ground control tasked him, and he saw them from the rear and at great distance, and thought they were F-14s.

there is 0% chance that a fighter pilot in the Kingdom of Kuwait is a Shia.

only people flying in Kuwait are those with connections to the Emir and his people, and they're unambiguously Sunni

I'd be more concerned with the US just pissing off the Sunnis, stuff like

> In January 2026, the United States government suspended immigrant visas for citizens of Kuwait and 74 other countries due to the high dependency of Kuwaiti immigrants on American welfare benefits.[219] Kuwait is the only GCC country on the visa suspension list.[219]

@grok is this true? /s

an ace from friendly fire is still an ace

stares at wingman angrily

Defensive warning: AN/AAR-57

Countermeasure AN/ALE-47

I don't think they had radar lock, I think they were firing IR missiles. They wouldn't have had much time to respond, and IR missiles are normally much smaller than beyond visual range radar missiles, which would explain how all 6 pilots survived.

Rumor is there was a problem with the IFF identification system sync. If that's true, the Kuwaiti pilot just saw 3 jets coming into their airspace with no IFF working, under a very compressed timeframe with lots of inbound UAS and potentially aircraft.

A fighter pilot is the modern military equivalent of a medieval knight.

I do not know how F-18 controls work but from what I understand lots of jet controls include the equivalent of a "safety" that can be used to prevent the weapon from being launched. Maybe the pilot thought he had it engaged?

The secondary thing here I've realized is that the missiles in question must not have been using active homing. If they were then the pilots of the US aircraft would have taken evasive action as soon as their radar warning receiver lit up.

Grok stuck in DOGE mode.

Saying the presence of American troops is the reason Bin Laden was anti-american is ideological flattening of Islamism, a movement from at least the 1920s that sees the entire failure of Islam in modernity as a product of western imperialism (a word that is very abused in their ideas), culture and ideas

Operation Desert Storm was when the US liberated Kuwait. The US played nice with Kuwait since then.

> The F18 and AIM9 are completely modeled in DCS and about as accurate of a sim as it gets.

Sure, but not the weather conditions and visibility.

And "as accurate of a sim as it gets" isn't true either. War Thunder has much better missile physics.

Saw some unsubstantiated claims that the planes shot down didn't even have it on

They have handed over their sovereignty to US forces to help kill their Muslim brethren. You want them to prove some more loyalty tests?

Highly unlikely. Highly.

The first could have been a mistake. It happening three times is crazy because ground control should have been in the pilots ear the entire time trying to de-conflict.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Kuwaiti Air Force switches to ground controlled intercept only after this.

I've lived and worked in the Gulf for half my life, I think I know what "these countries" are like.

> A key element of the exercise was the sharpening of combined fighter capabilities between the U.S. and Kuwait Air Forces

Well, the Kuwaitis seem pretty sharp? Three shootdowns is a lot in the modern era. The F-22 program only has two air to air kills in its whole history.

"AN/AAR-57" Yes the small yellow subwoofer looking things that people speculate endlessly about. Supposedly BAE systems marketing released a picture of the whole system LOL, who needs spies if you have a marketing dept, also supposedly just about everything about this is classified. They supposedly come in four packs and there are "many" public pictures of them one under each cockpit rail on the F15 and the other two are unknown location? Or maybe the mythology online that they come in four packs is false and they actually come in two packs which seems more likely. Plausibly they install 4-packs on helicopters not fixed wing.

I could see some logic in not putting cams pointing forward because theoretically the pilot is looking where they're going and not putting one facing back because flight time to impact is so low they can't evade anyway, but a side attack is survivable if detected early enough... Also facing back they're going to be "seeing" their own exhaust most of the time.

The total non-reaction by the pilots in the public videos would indicate that if those planes even had -57s they were not working or not working well enough to matter or not working fast enough to matter.

I would agree some monster sized BVR missile will be easier to detect. In practice does it matter if the missile detector works at short range if the attacker would likely be in guns mode at short enough range anyway?

Even the early Roman legions were composed of land owning citizens. Partly because they could afford / knew people they could get equipment from. Also likely because you wanted people in the establishment that you could trust armed and the power that went with it.

> I've realized is that the missiles in question must not have been using active homing

Sorry, but it's totally funny that your nick is literally "Sidewinder".

> I've realized is that the missiles in question must not have been using active homing.

This is covered in the article so it's weird to present it as an original thought.

DOGEfighting

I probably shouldn't have come off so confident sounding ( i swear i'm not an LLM ). When my 8th grader gets home, my DCS and military aircraft/weapons consultant, i'll discuss this with him him and comment again.

The state religion in Kuwait is Sunni Islam. It's much more nuanced than "Muslim brethren", except perhaps less so when Israel is directly involved, as it is today.

It's also important to note that these are not democracies. The state frequently does things that people aren't entirely happy with, it's only when the people (or religious leaders!) become sufficiently unhappy that it becomes a problem.

That could explain one accidental shootdown. It cannot conceivably explain three.

OBL stated his reasons including the stationing of American troops in Saudi Arabia.

Lol most Kuwaitis including the royal family are Sunni and believe Iranian Shia's to be heretics. So no love lost there at all.

not recently

> In January 2026, the United States government suspended immigrant visas for citizens of Kuwait and 74 other countries due to the high dependency of Kuwaiti immigrants on American welfare benefits.[219] Kuwait is the only GCC country on the visa suspension list.[219]

Given the absolutely deafening silence I would not be surprised if GC told him there were absolutely positively no friendlies in the area at that vector and altitude. Historically, silence always indicates there's something to cover up.

There is also old timer thinking where back in the 50s/60s AIM-9L days it takes a good fraction of a minute for the compressed gas tank to cool the sensor and back in the day they used a rotating 1-D sensor that also took a fraction of a minute to lock on. Very popular hollywood-esque drama "I can't get a lock I can't get a lock" drama.

Unrealistically video game type experience was back as far as the 80s you could spam sidewinders as fast as you can click. LOL they didn't work like that IRL until at least the late 90s.

Note they haven't make missiles like that in 30 years, the 9X and everything newer uses an electric powered cooler that can chill before engagement and stays chilled the entire flight if they want. Its not unclassified but assumed that the missile will not go green on preflight if the electric cooler isn't working on the ground, even the DCS world guys don't know. And they haven't used rotating 1-d sensors since like the 80s, the modern 2-d sensors look like civilian thermal cameras and can "lock on" as fast as a computer algorithm can find the closest object to the center of the sensor that is red-hot, which is probably a couple milliseconds, and apparently based on public test videos the sensor slew rate is at least as fast as human hands pointing a camera. Does anyone make CCD arrays that can go "much faster" refresh than 60 hz for video? I don't think that tech has leaked out except for exotic high speed cameras, and I don't know of any exotic high speed IR cameras, which would be pretty interesting if they existed for engineering purposes. So I bet a AIM-9X takes less than a second to lock on. Which seems to match tons of public unclassified info that modern sidewinders are point and shoot fast as a civilian smartphone or real camera.

So if you're an old timer using 1970s equipment it would take at least 10 to 45 seconds per missile launch which makes for a WTF scenario when 3 friendlies got shot down in a row.

So if you are post Y2K era like we are today, you click lock on lock on boresight mode, click the re lock button on and shoot on each target, the entire engagement took probably about 3 seconds depending on adrenaline level?

There's plenty of public unclassified test video out there and the difference between 90s and 10s IR guided missiles "UI" is pretty dramatic. From near WWI submarine torpedo level of drama and delay to just point and click about that fast. It was a pretty big change tactically.

> Well, the Kuwaitis seem pretty sharp?

Do they? If they shot down 3 friendly aircraft that would be a catastrophically stupid mistake which would imply they are, in fact, not that sharp (or at least this specific unit and chain of command).

> The F-22 program only has two air to air kills in its whole history

A very poor comparison point given that the F-22 has had limited opportunities for engagement. And just a poor comparison overall.

Very few rich people become commercial pilots. They might get a private pilot license as a hobby but generally pilots are just employees they hire to take them around.

Plenty of working airline pilots come from regular middle-class backgrounds and never served in the military. They take out student loans to pay for training, then work low-paying jobs as flight instructors or something to build up enough flight hours to get hired at a regional airline.

Those who go the ROTC route can totally get a fighter jet assignment if they want it. Once they get selected for a pilot slot, assignment to a particular airframe is primarily based on how they perform in the training pipeline.

> In almost all countries, military is seen as a "working class" profession

In western countries that's the case. In autocratic countries it is essential to keep control of the army by placing the equivalent of the royal family in charge.

Also, fighter pilots were historically considered as the successors for cavalry and manned by the nobility, in Arab countries this means the ruling elite

What? No way. Yes, a lot of airline pilots were former military, but I know several people who are airline pilots and did not come from "very rich" families.

Flying is not in any way some kind of high-status luxurious job. It can be grueling, with intensive and continuous training, wacky shifts, very strict rules, lots of time away from family, long stretches of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror. You can lose your career over a minor mistake that snowballed into a incident due to factors out of your control. Minor health issue? Need mental help? Better get those fixed in secret or you probably won't fly again.

In my line of work, a major mistake would bring down an internal website at a big company for a little while. An airline pilot's major mistake would kill himself and a hundred-plus people.

I can't fathom why anyone who is rich would want to be an airline pilot. It's a shit-ton of work, stress, and risk for not much reward. You gotta love to fly in order to stick with it. If the rich want to fly, they just do the training and buy a plane, they don't need to do it for a living!

There are exactly zero places in the world where "fighter jet pilot" is seen as a "working class" profession.

And my whole point was that it's often not a profession, but a hobby.

I thought that land ownership was offered as a reward for service?

It's a "high status" job. Doing the high status jobs correctly isn't always easy.

Pilots are not told they are dropping bombs on a school filled with kids. They are told it is a headquarters or storage or bunker or whatever.

The saying it’s true for officers seems to need greater support since historically officers were always nobility or from the leadership class. Today, in countries that are not full democracies, the leadership wants the military controlled by favorable people and that means family members.

What does that have to do with anything? They went through training in different times when conflicts were not on their plate. During peace it is a cool job, you know not every air force around the world bombs schools, in fact most don't.

Anybody who ever went through arab countries with eyes opened saw the massive nepotism and corruption at all levels. Army/air force ain't immune to this, in contrary. Do you think ie some general or politician's first son would be treated and pushed up same as common folks?

Presumably he means countries with somewhat higher levels of nepotism in the military than the US.

MENA countries (excepting Israel here) are known to suffer from this significantly, and it is a big factor in their militaries historically underperforming.

It is a valid point to bring this up as possible cause or factor, no need to get all defensive about it.

Why? Specs for link16 jamming have been circulating since before the invasion of ukraine, there is a whole DoD technical report dedicated to trying to update it knocking around somewhere.

Iran claim to have used it to bring down US drones in the past.(1)

1. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1215/Exclus...

Do not mistake leadership and regular people. Afghanistan president Ghani handed over sovereignty to US too but Afghans disagreed. I am confident that there is significant minority in Kuwait wishing for Iran victory. As a datapoint, there were videos from Bahrain with people cheering for Iranian rockets hitting American bases.

That is the basis for my theory. Not being on

And

Being on but jammed look the same from the perspective of the one shooting them down.

Also, I wonder how resilient it is to the gps spoofing that been going on. If they managed to trick it into identifying itself as a few hundred miles from where it actually was, then very hard to know where it actually is.

All of which is well within Irans technical capabilities.

Imagine thinking that you're brothers with someone based solely on what religion you both supposedly believe.

It is very easy to shoot down friendly aircraft because they don't usually shoot back. They fly in nice straight lines because they don't expect to be shot down at any moment by their allies. They don't employ ECM against you. They don't terrain mask. But, maybe you are joking?

I'll spell it out: A lot of air force pilots in these countries end up being rich kids who do it because it's a fun hobby, not motivated soldiers.

Because many of these people see it as a fun hobby, they don't spend much time worrying about potentially being ordered to drop bombs on schools filled with children. It's rather unlikely that their government would order them to do so anyway, compare a list of countries being hit by Iran with a list of countries bombing Iran.

I believe the latter was key and democratization of the armed forced was at least one reason the dictators (Julius etc) were able to maintain loyalty of their troops as they eliminated the republic as such. Im not super well read here though.

Higher level, Fukuyamas political order series does a great deep dive into these kinds of topics, really blew my mind, and made many archaic seeming political structures make far more intuitive sense to me afterwards.

> Cool job? Being ordered to drop bombs on schools filled with children doesn't seems like a cool job..

That was a launched cruise missile from a ship, targeted by an LLM. Apparently the grounds USED to be a valid military target long ago (a decade? I'm not sure exactly) and now there's a school there.

How easy is it in an F-15E to modify a friend to a foe in the targeting systems?

This is an overly US centric view which misses a lot of substance.

Bin Laden major start in jihadism was in afghanistan, while there were already US soldiers in his home nation of saudi arabia. for some reason that deployment wasn't deemed important enough to fight.

If you read a bit into the ideological influence of bin laden, such his teachers you would know the ideology is heavily based on the Muslim Brotherhood.

They do not only see a problem with western imperialism, which he incorrectly deduced the US deployment to be.

It also sees a major threat in western culture to Islamic values. The reason why the west needs to be fought in NYC rather than the troops in Arabia is because they felt Islam is under attack culturally. As in, everyone will throw their religion away, families will devolve and immodesty will be rampant.

So it is naive to think that if the US would not be involved in the Middle East then it won't be attacked, and it is replicating the pre-ww2 thought which was mildly unsuccessful

Bahrain has a significant Shia population that feels oppressed and identifies with Iran.

That's not similar to Kuwait, a country that has a recent history of being taken over by its largest neighbor and saved by the US

Imagine walking into a random neighborhood, finding a stranger and one "Salam" later, you are like brothers; willing to die for them.

Oh yeah, it's a superpower in-practice actually. Alhamdulilah!

That link is about GPS spoofing, not Link 16 jamming, those are two different radio systems and two different attacks.

It is subtantially more likely that this individual plane was tampered with or maintained incorrectly than these signals were anywhere close to being effectively jammed (but still less likely than them not having it on in the first place).

The power levels they are operating at are well into "do NOT stand in front of this" territory

Quran 49:10

None of the other air forces involved shot down three F-15s, so I don't think it's that easy.

If I'm skimming this page [1] well enough (find: "shot down"), there's only 6 F-15s that have been shot down, and only 4 or them were air-to-air. If it's so easy, should be more than one other incident, and that guy only got one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F-15_losses

In a sense it's a rather positive way of thinking, no? Surely having a shared set of beliefs is a pretty good starting point.

I'm certainly not religious, but it feels rather cynical to make fun of this.

Air force pilots are the modern day knights of the sky. Also, up until WW2, which social class you were from determined whether or not you were going to be an officer or canon fodder so rich kids swooping their way into being captains is historically normal.

When you say, “these countries,” I imagine you include the United States, where politically connected youngsters like George W. Bush secured and then ignored jet interceptor training during the 1960s?

I’ll have to give those a read. For others, I’ve linked their wiki pages below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Origins_of_Political_Order

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_Order_and_Political_...

> targeted by an LLM

I don't think it's a known fact at this point.

Taking out the human factor makes it so much worse.

Building an LLM is one thing but building one specifically to pick targets is another.

For me knowing that my actions may have contributed direcly to the death of anyone is not something I want to live with.

The IFF system will trigger warning symbology on various cockpit displays but it won't prevent the pilot from employing weapons. At this point we don't know for certain whether IFF was enabled and working correctly on any of the aircraft involved.

correct.

Actually during the time when the nobility went to be fighter pilots it was a suicidal role with very low survival rates (ww1)

I would include the USA, with the caveat that in the US being sent to the military is often seen as a punishment for rich children where as in the Middle East being sent to the military can be an opportunity to build an independent power base for yourself or your family.

The USA has a volunteer military. Occasionally there are cases where the criminal court system might agree to dismiss a minor charge if the defendant enlists. But that doesn't happen to rich people, or those joining as commissioned officers (pilot track).

Be that as it may, I think we can agree that the USAF is not the same as the air forces of the Gulf countries.

Not everyone agrees that America is special. You haven't convincingly won a conflict in how long, so we're not really convinced your military is as exceptional as you like to say.

I'm not American