Guess who gets the cool jobs in these countries? Typically not the most highly motivated individuals, but the children of influential people who pull strings to make it happen.
Guess how easy it's to fire those people when they don't pay that much attention during training?
A pilot not trained well on visually IDing some of the most common military planes would be quite a training lapse.
Another fighter pilot’s analysis, seen in video below, questions whether the Kuwaiti pilot might even have gone rogue against an ally. That actually seems possible based on the evidence, but it is hard to believe.
The fact that _three_ were shot down using air-to-air missiles is the clincher.
The issue is that once they shot the heat seaking missile, they aren’t able to select a specific target the way they could with a radar guided missile, so the tool made a lot of sense for what the Kuwaitii pilot was actually doing to the mission planner who may not have realized the proximity to American fighter jets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush_military_servic...
There's open source intel on google that Iran has SU-27s. Under combat conditions you have an instant to tell them apart. Clearly, its possible to misidentify them at least one time historically as the F-15s did get shot down.
I can assure you from having flown around a lot, if you are wildly outnumbered 3 SU-27 (err, F15) to your 1 F-18 you do not attempt a radar lock you do an IR only attack. The article mentions getting a radar lock first but that is unnecessary for IR guided weapons and in a 3-1 situation will just get you shot down.
Waiting for confirmation from the ground means 1 of the 3 will surely notice and you will be shot down.
Ironically if it were a flight of 4 F-18 they'd probably not have been as skittish at radar locking a mere 3 aircraft and the IFF (assuming its probably configured and working etc) would have informed them they're friendlies. IFF can only tell you if everything on both sides is working perfectly and powered up, if you don't get a friendly response all you know is it didn't work. Not unlike a network ping command. If ping works you know they're up and accepting pings from you, if ping doesn't work, you don't really know anything for sure.
Possibly the primary fault was the Kuwaiti lack of situational awareness. Somehow he's in shoot down range of three other A/C and he's got maybe 3 to 5 seconds to shoot them down or be shot down himself.
Somehow there is no discussion on what both A/C were doing. Usually a landing on an airfield would not look like a bombing run but possibly the F15s were doing something "weird" for which they could be blamed. The total censorship of what they were doing points to them being up to something dumb "lets buzz the airfield during active combat would could possibly go wrong" and they get shot down for looking like an attack run. Or a mix up where there's a published ahead of time safe altitude window around 15K but these guys for who knows why were 1000 feet off the ground doing who knows what. Maybe they had a good tactical reason to do it but its damning that nothing is being reported as an excuse.
Clearly any passive IR detector thats theorized to exist for years either doesn't exist or doesn't work very well. In theory, a smart enough IR camera should be able to notice something very warm indeed is getting rapidly brighter as it approaches you. In practice, these don't exist, or don't work. "Oh yeah they didn't have those when I was in, but they totally have them now" for the last 30 years. Apparently, not yet in 2026.
I find it unfortunate that people who do this for a living can't legally comment, people who do this for a hobby are not asked or actively ignored despite extensive practical experience, and people who mostly have a grift of looking authoritative for legacy media get automatic blind belief despite sometimes spouting total nonsense. This is the typical journalistic response in ALL disaster situations not just military aviation.
History buffs may remember that the presence of American troops in Saudi Arabia was the catalyst that turned OBL into America's foe. He had offered his services to the King to defend KSA against Saddam Hussein (after Saddam swallowed Kuwait), but the King politely refused and speed dialled the USA instead. The rest is history.
Here's his sim (at least he first few min) of the situation a few days ago but facing SAMs and not F18s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7XpVcUV_vQ
I get the concern, but i would remmeber to attribute it to incompetance rather than malice. And from my understanding, there is no shorten of incompetance among gulf arab militaries
Then it jumps to incredulity that it could happen 3 times.
I don't know why it's so hard to imagine someone pulling a trigger 3 times.
Why is the US using such dated planes?
I would go so far to say as commercial flight is dominated by very rich people who could afford to do the commercial ratings on their own, or middle/lower class people that became military pilots to pay for it.
Btw fighter pilot is extremely physically taxing. It's not for everyone. Any degree of motion sickness and you're out. Everyone joins the air force wanting to become a fighter pilot but only a small percentage can.
What do you mean by "these countries"? What you lived in "these countries"? What do you know about 'these countries". It sounds like something someone who can't locate Africa on a globe or thinks "arab" is a nationality would say
This is such a joke I cant even imagine how you can formulate this thought...
- Exercise Marauder Shield 26.1 (Nov. 2025) "U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft assigned to the 391st Expeditionary Fighter Squadron takeoff during Exercise Marauder Shield in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Nov. 8, 2025. A key element of the exercise was the sharpening of combined fighter capabilities between the U.S. and Kuwait Air Forces. This included joint training exercises and hot-pit refueling operations."
- CENTCOM Bomber Task Force mission (July 2022)
"..During the BTF, two B-52H Stratofortresses, assigned to the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command, conducted theater integration training and operations with a variety of U.S. Air Force, partner and ally aircraft, including F-15/18, RJ-135, E-3, KC-135/10/46, FGR-4, and A-330..."
"The bombers’ flight originated at Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford, England, and flew over the Eastern Mediterranean, Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea before departing the region. The mission included fighter escorts from the Royal Air Force and the Air Forces of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia...."
"...“Communication is critical,” said Wong, who also serves as the Deputy Director of Combat Operations, Combined Air Operations Center. “By enhancing lines of communication, we are able to establish a clear and direct line in real time amongst the Air Operations Centers of all nations participating..."
Slaving heatseekers to radar is the standard way of employing them. I reckon by "having flown around" you're referring to DCS, which is absolutely unrealistic when it comes to engagements.
>Clearly any passive IR detector thats theorized to exist for years either doesn't exist or doesn't work very well. In theory, a smart enough IR camera should be able to notice something very warm indeed is getting rapidly brighter as it approaches you. In practice, these don't exist, or don't work. "Oh yeah they didn't have those when I was in, but they totally have them now" for the last 30 years. Apparently, not yet in 2026.
MAWS exist and they're employed on a lot of aircraft. I don't believe Strike Eagles have them though. An F-35 would get a missile warning for a heatseeker, it's not science fiction technology for quite a while now.
>I find it unfortunate that people who do this for a living can't legally comment, people who do this for a hobby are not asked or actively ignored despite extensive practical experience, and people who mostly have a grift of looking authoritative for legacy media get automatic blind belief despite sometimes spouting total nonsense.
You don't get practical experience by playing flight simulators, it's not comparable to how planes are employed as weapons systems.
Same thing with the F-18.
Eventually of course all of these weapons platforms will be phased out, but for the time being they are still extremely useful, and even more so after the more advanced aircraft and other attack vectors have taken out or limited air defense capabilities or the ability for enemy aircraft to intercept these aircraft. Not that they can't handle their own, anyway.
Also flying modern fighter jets is the kind of fun that's typically very hard to buy with money, so you take the opportunity when available.
only people flying in Kuwait are those with connections to the Emir and his people, and they're unambiguously Sunni
I'd be more concerned with the US just pissing off the Sunnis, stuff like
> In January 2026, the United States government suspended immigrant visas for citizens of Kuwait and 74 other countries due to the high dependency of Kuwaiti immigrants on American welfare benefits.[219] Kuwait is the only GCC country on the visa suspension list.[219]
stares at wingman angrily
Countermeasure AN/ALE-47
I don't think they had radar lock, I think they were firing IR missiles. They wouldn't have had much time to respond, and IR missiles are normally much smaller than beyond visual range radar missiles, which would explain how all 6 pilots survived.
Rumor is there was a problem with the IFF identification system sync. If that's true, the Kuwaiti pilot just saw 3 jets coming into their airspace with no IFF working, under a very compressed timeframe with lots of inbound UAS and potentially aircraft.
The secondary thing here I've realized is that the missiles in question must not have been using active homing. If they were then the pilots of the US aircraft would have taken evasive action as soon as their radar warning receiver lit up.
Sure, but not the weather conditions and visibility.
And "as accurate of a sim as it gets" isn't true either. War Thunder has much better missile physics.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Kuwaiti Air Force switches to ground controlled intercept only after this.
Well, the Kuwaitis seem pretty sharp? Three shootdowns is a lot in the modern era. The F-22 program only has two air to air kills in its whole history.
I could see some logic in not putting cams pointing forward because theoretically the pilot is looking where they're going and not putting one facing back because flight time to impact is so low they can't evade anyway, but a side attack is survivable if detected early enough... Also facing back they're going to be "seeing" their own exhaust most of the time.
The total non-reaction by the pilots in the public videos would indicate that if those planes even had -57s they were not working or not working well enough to matter or not working fast enough to matter.
I would agree some monster sized BVR missile will be easier to detect. In practice does it matter if the missile detector works at short range if the attacker would likely be in guns mode at short enough range anyway?
Sorry, but it's totally funny that your nick is literally "Sidewinder".
This is covered in the article so it's weird to present it as an original thought.
It's also important to note that these are not democracies. The state frequently does things that people aren't entirely happy with, it's only when the people (or religious leaders!) become sufficiently unhappy that it becomes a problem.
> In January 2026, the United States government suspended immigrant visas for citizens of Kuwait and 74 other countries due to the high dependency of Kuwaiti immigrants on American welfare benefits.[219] Kuwait is the only GCC country on the visa suspension list.[219]
There is also old timer thinking where back in the 50s/60s AIM-9L days it takes a good fraction of a minute for the compressed gas tank to cool the sensor and back in the day they used a rotating 1-D sensor that also took a fraction of a minute to lock on. Very popular hollywood-esque drama "I can't get a lock I can't get a lock" drama.
Unrealistically video game type experience was back as far as the 80s you could spam sidewinders as fast as you can click. LOL they didn't work like that IRL until at least the late 90s.
Note they haven't make missiles like that in 30 years, the 9X and everything newer uses an electric powered cooler that can chill before engagement and stays chilled the entire flight if they want. Its not unclassified but assumed that the missile will not go green on preflight if the electric cooler isn't working on the ground, even the DCS world guys don't know. And they haven't used rotating 1-d sensors since like the 80s, the modern 2-d sensors look like civilian thermal cameras and can "lock on" as fast as a computer algorithm can find the closest object to the center of the sensor that is red-hot, which is probably a couple milliseconds, and apparently based on public test videos the sensor slew rate is at least as fast as human hands pointing a camera. Does anyone make CCD arrays that can go "much faster" refresh than 60 hz for video? I don't think that tech has leaked out except for exotic high speed cameras, and I don't know of any exotic high speed IR cameras, which would be pretty interesting if they existed for engineering purposes. So I bet a AIM-9X takes less than a second to lock on. Which seems to match tons of public unclassified info that modern sidewinders are point and shoot fast as a civilian smartphone or real camera.
So if you're an old timer using 1970s equipment it would take at least 10 to 45 seconds per missile launch which makes for a WTF scenario when 3 friendlies got shot down in a row.
So if you are post Y2K era like we are today, you click lock on lock on boresight mode, click the re lock button on and shoot on each target, the entire engagement took probably about 3 seconds depending on adrenaline level?
There's plenty of public unclassified test video out there and the difference between 90s and 10s IR guided missiles "UI" is pretty dramatic. From near WWI submarine torpedo level of drama and delay to just point and click about that fast. It was a pretty big change tactically.
Do they? If they shot down 3 friendly aircraft that would be a catastrophically stupid mistake which would imply they are, in fact, not that sharp (or at least this specific unit and chain of command).
> The F-22 program only has two air to air kills in its whole history
A very poor comparison point given that the F-22 has had limited opportunities for engagement. And just a poor comparison overall.
Plenty of working airline pilots come from regular middle-class backgrounds and never served in the military. They take out student loans to pay for training, then work low-paying jobs as flight instructors or something to build up enough flight hours to get hired at a regional airline.
Those who go the ROTC route can totally get a fighter jet assignment if they want it. Once they get selected for a pilot slot, assignment to a particular airframe is primarily based on how they perform in the training pipeline.
In western countries that's the case. In autocratic countries it is essential to keep control of the army by placing the equivalent of the royal family in charge.
Also, fighter pilots were historically considered as the successors for cavalry and manned by the nobility, in Arab countries this means the ruling elite
Flying is not in any way some kind of high-status luxurious job. It can be grueling, with intensive and continuous training, wacky shifts, very strict rules, lots of time away from family, long stretches of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror. You can lose your career over a minor mistake that snowballed into a incident due to factors out of your control. Minor health issue? Need mental help? Better get those fixed in secret or you probably won't fly again.
In my line of work, a major mistake would bring down an internal website at a big company for a little while. An airline pilot's major mistake would kill himself and a hundred-plus people.
I can't fathom why anyone who is rich would want to be an airline pilot. It's a shit-ton of work, stress, and risk for not much reward. You gotta love to fly in order to stick with it. If the rich want to fly, they just do the training and buy a plane, they don't need to do it for a living!
And my whole point was that it's often not a profession, but a hobby.
Anybody who ever went through arab countries with eyes opened saw the massive nepotism and corruption at all levels. Army/air force ain't immune to this, in contrary. Do you think ie some general or politician's first son would be treated and pushed up same as common folks?
MENA countries (excepting Israel here) are known to suffer from this significantly, and it is a big factor in their militaries historically underperforming.
It is a valid point to bring this up as possible cause or factor, no need to get all defensive about it.
Iran claim to have used it to bring down US drones in the past.(1)
1. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1215/Exclus...
And
Being on but jammed look the same from the perspective of the one shooting them down.
Also, I wonder how resilient it is to the gps spoofing that been going on. If they managed to trick it into identifying itself as a few hundred miles from where it actually was, then very hard to know where it actually is.
All of which is well within Irans technical capabilities.
Because many of these people see it as a fun hobby, they don't spend much time worrying about potentially being ordered to drop bombs on schools filled with children. It's rather unlikely that their government would order them to do so anyway, compare a list of countries being hit by Iran with a list of countries bombing Iran.
Higher level, Fukuyamas political order series does a great deep dive into these kinds of topics, really blew my mind, and made many archaic seeming political structures make far more intuitive sense to me afterwards.
That was a launched cruise missile from a ship, targeted by an LLM. Apparently the grounds USED to be a valid military target long ago (a decade? I'm not sure exactly) and now there's a school there.
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Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Civilian onlookers out in the street filming the air-to-air engagement rapidly unfolding in the bright blue sky above them, a trail of smoke, and the low rumble of fighter jet engines. This is the latest video to have emerged from the extraordinary incident earlier this week in which a Kuwaiti Air Force F/A-18 Hornet was responsible for shooting down three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles.
As in the previous videos of the incident and its aftermath, the usual caveats apply as to the nature of its authenticity, which remains unconfirmed. However, everything points to this being genuine, and it clearly indicates a within-visual-range air-to-air engagement, likely involving a heat-seeking AIM-9 Sidewinder series air-to-air missile.
Check the video out here:
New footage shows a Kuwaiti F/A-18C downing a U.S. Air Force F-15E at close range with what appears to be an AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missile on March 2. pic.twitter.com/OZ1vIuOtzq
— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) March 6, 2026
It was initially rumored that a ground-based air defense system, such as the Patriot, which is present in Kuwait, took the F-15Es out. However, the earlier video footage of one of the jets spiraling to the ground suggested it was an air-to-air engagement, based on the damage to the aircraft.
At 11:03 p.m. ET, March 1, three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles flying in support of Operation Epic Fury went down over Kuwait due to an apparent friendly fire incident.
Read more:https://t.co/i2y3Q3vo2E
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 2, 2026
The new video is also in line with our original assessment of the likely cause of the shootdowns, namely, tail-aspect missile shots made by smaller-yield weapons. As we noted at the time, under certain circumstances, if the Hornet employed passive heat-seeking missiles (AIM-9), the F-15E pilots may not have known they were being engaged until the weapon detonated.
Footage of an F-15 falling out of the sky this morning over Kuwait, in an apparent “friendly fire” incident involving the U.S. Air Force. pic.twitter.com/GQvryfJ4C4
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 2, 2026
The video clearly shows one of the F-15Es after being hit, with part of its rear portion burning brightly, and the same aircraft in a flat spin toward the ground. You can also see the two crew members ejecting. The F/A-18 is also seen, toward the top of the frame.
For at least part of the engagement, the F/A-18 and F-15E are clearly in the same frame and are in close proximity.
An experienced former F/A-18 pilot talked to TWZ about the event and the new video, and concluded that the incident is, altogether, “very strange.”
“I have genuinely no idea how someone could make this mistake,” the ex-Hornet driver continued. “Unless it’s something procedural and GCI [ground-control intercept] has messed up, talked him on, and he’s seen what he wanted to see … but even that’s bordering on implausible.”

Three Kuwait Air Force F/A-18C/D Hornets during Exercise Storm of 2017 in Jahra, Kuwait on January 17, 2017. Photo by Jaber Abdulkhaleg/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Anadolu
Undoubtedly, the challenge of deconfliction of friend from foe in a very complex war zone is a significant one, as we outlined previously. At the same time, the threat from Iranian aircraft was, at the time, real. Also this week, a Qatar Emiri Air Force F-15QA shot down a pair of Iranian Su-24 Fencer strike aircraft that were inbound to attack the sprawling air base at Al Udeid.
While the cause of the friendly-fire incident remains unclear, the chance to see such an aerial engagement is remarkable in itself, especially the very rare sight of a modern fighter firing one of its air-to-air missiles in an operational context.
A video shows a U.S. Air Force F-15C Eagle fighter jet destroying a towed target at very close range with one of its Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, during a live-fire exercise over the Atlantic Ocean on December 8, 2020:

F-15 Firing Training Sidewinder NATM-9M At Drone
The same former Hornet driver also explained exactly how a short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder missile would be fired from the jet in a WVR scenario:
“You’d be in air-to-air master mode and bring up the weapon using HOTAS [‘hands on throttle and stick’ controls]. You rock a castle switch that puts you in Sidewinder mode. From there, you can select your radar scan mode, again using HOTAS. Now you have a weapon looking for an infrared signature and a radar looking for a target. In a combat mode, the radar will latch/form a track almost immediately. The weapon system then cues the Sidewinder to the radar track, and so long as it’s within the weapon’s kinematic capabilities, you’ll get a SHOOT cue. The weapon then leaves on trigger press.”
“You can also just point and shoot with a Sidewinder, but then your radar isn’t giving you any info, so you risk a shot that can’t make it.”
In such a scenario, it is conceivable that the F/A-18 pilot might have accidentally launched a missile that then found its target, the same pilot agreed, but that would not explain the three friendly-fire kills.
“Once, yes. Twice, no way. Thrice?”
It is worth bearing in mind that there have been previous incidents of friendly-fire shootdowns, even when a visual ID had been conducted. This happened in 1994, when two U.S. Air Force F-15 Eagle fighters shot down two U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters over Iraq, killing 26. Perhaps the Kuwaiti pilot thought they had encountered Iranian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters, but, again, to make the same mistake three times over seems highly improbable, especially at close range.

U.S. military personnel inspect the wreckage of a Black Hawk helicopter in the Northern Iraq No-Fly Zone during Operation Provide Comfort, on April 15 or 16, 1994. U.S. Air Force
Another fighter pilot’s analysis, seen in video below, questions whether the Kuwaiti pilot might even have gone rogue against an ally. That actually seems possible based on the evidence, but it is hard to believe.

Accident or Crime? A Kuwaiti F/A-18 Hornet Shot Down Three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles?
Ultimately, based on the latest video and the limited reports so far, it’s still far from clear how this costly incident happened. A friendly-fire kill involving a longer-range weapon would be more believable, but the within-visual-range nature of this engagement is bizarre, to say the least.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com
Bin Laden major start in jihadism was in afghanistan, while there were already US soldiers in his home nation of saudi arabia. for some reason that deployment wasn't deemed important enough to fight.
If you read a bit into the ideological influence of bin laden, such his teachers you would know the ideology is heavily based on the Muslim Brotherhood.
They do not only see a problem with western imperialism, which he incorrectly deduced the US deployment to be.
It also sees a major threat in western culture to Islamic values. The reason why the west needs to be fought in NYC rather than the troops in Arabia is because they felt Islam is under attack culturally. As in, everyone will throw their religion away, families will devolve and immodesty will be rampant.
So it is naive to think that if the US would not be involved in the Middle East then it won't be attacked, and it is replicating the pre-ww2 thought which was mildly unsuccessful
That's not similar to Kuwait, a country that has a recent history of being taken over by its largest neighbor and saved by the US
Oh yeah, it's a superpower in-practice actually. Alhamdulilah!
The power levels they are operating at are well into "do NOT stand in front of this" territory
If I'm skimming this page [1] well enough (find: "shot down"), there's only 6 F-15s that have been shot down, and only 4 or them were air-to-air. If it's so easy, should be more than one other incident, and that guy only got one.
I'm certainly not religious, but it feels rather cynical to make fun of this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Origins_of_Political_Order
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_Order_and_Political_...
I don't think it's a known fact at this point.
Building an LLM is one thing but building one specifically to pick targets is another.
For me knowing that my actions may have contributed direcly to the death of anyone is not something I want to live with.