I have a home array too, though based on 4Tb drives (6x, two lots of RAID10, one 3x4T one 3x6T, linked as an LVM volume as I extended it by adding the second array some time ago).

I was planning to downsize anyway as most of the media I don't need to keep and I plan to replace that server with a much lower power one with a bunch of smaller SSDs. Luckily I bought the SSDs (and the other parts) before the recent price hikes, I just haven't got around to building the machine! Hopefully they all work when I do finally get around to it…

I've recently bought 3x32TB (new) and 2x28TB (recertified) drives for a new NAS as my old one started running out of space on some drives (local LLMs and datasets or media for dataset preparations are huge these days) as I expect the prices to go up considerably due to most HDD manufacturers being booked years in advance already. Some drives don't even make it to retail at all (44TB Seagate).

If you buy (hypothetically) a lot of disks and don't use them for, say 10 years, will they degrade?

Because the manufacturers of storage (and RAM) consider it to be an AI bubble, too. The surge in demand is a short burst, not a sustained one. Hence it makes no sense to throw a whole lot of ressources into scaling up production, when the demand won't be there anymore in 1-2 years when the factories will be ready.

I believe many sellers an eBay are illegally manipulating the market, and eBay is tacitly helping them by ignoring and removing feedback.

For example this seller: https://www.ebay.com/str/disctechllc

“Accidentally miss-priced” a bunch of drives, and then instead of canceling the orders, refunded everyone, but still shipped packages: https://forums.servethehome.com/index.php?threads/enterprise...

I believe they intentionally did this, causing people huge import fees in some cases, in order to not remove the “26” sold on their listings that are now astronomically priced: https://ebay.us/m/mGRdiT

Edit: They also lied on their customs declarations (!)

Three years seems ridiculously low lifetime - I'd hope that was covered by warranty.

also bought a handful of 14 to 16tb drives. They sold for such a low price last year I thought it can't be wrong to grab them.

It's odd mechanical disks also surged, I thought it was only transistor based memory that are becoming rarity.

Or does it work like with fuel, gas and electricity goes up when oil spikes ?

Yeah, totally agree. I believe that the axing of several anti-monopoly enforcement departments and regulations in the largest market in the world (the US) is effectively a very big wink wink, nudge nudge to market participants; Trump basically got to play as Oprah for Big Businesses everywhere: "You get to be a cartel! You get to be a cartel! Everybody gets to be a cartel!"

He's basically created a sort of one-sided economic "Ferry Ordeal" (like the Joker on The Dark Knight [1]), basically leaving us consumers to not be exploited only if there are decent men at the helm of big businesses. It could be asymmetrical instead of one-sided if you consider that the people can only tolerate so much squeezing before they start clamoring for guillotines [2].

[1]: https://batman.fandom.com/wiki/Ferry_Ordeal_and_Skyscraper_B...

[2]: https://youtu.be/TMHCw3RqulY

Customer demands (or hoarding) sentiments kept us busy on the production lines of racks with 1K+ drives and I think we've already shipped out more than 5K of them since early last year. No supply constraints on cpu and memory parts due to the way this sku was designed but damn did we have so many defective hdd's; I'd ballpark about 20% from the vendor and 10% from mishandling.

If I need storage now and I can't get flash disks, I will buy mechanical. Production will not ramp up overnight (or at all - there is no point investing in scaling up if I think the situation is only temporary), so an increase in demand inevitably will result in prices going up.

Btw gas goes up when oil goes up not just because it can replace it in some applications, but also because it is often produced and transported in the same areas as oil, by the same companies involved in oil, so it is typically affected in similar ways.

Because when the AI customers explode N months down the line, you don't want to be on the hook for a new factory.

Building production facilities isn't like flipping a switch.

Production was close to maximum anyway because of existing demand and how expensive new fabs are to bring up. The boom in AI use wasn't sufficiently planned for as it wasn't expected at the scale we are seeing, so to scale up means building more fabs - a long and expensive task. The situation is not helped by one of the AI companies successfully negotiating huge deals for a year worth of production with the two biggest providers at the same time and keeping it secret enough that neither bumped up prices in the deal as a result of knowing what the play was.

Most players are rational actors and this isn't their first time in this sort of market. Getting more production online if you do not have slack like downtime takes quite a while. And there is no guarantee that they can sell the new production even at previous rates if they end up in over supply.

Generally people just don't understand how long ramping up new production facilities can take and what is the realistic pay off period for them.

It is the law of inertia, it applies to many more situations than we think. Markets is one of the, especially large-scale ones.

Building these factories goes way beyond "nontrivial". We may see a few come online in a couple of years though, but time will tell if the extra capacity alleviates the crunch.

Adding to what others have said, several hdd, ssd and ram manufactures have said that they don't believe demand will be sustained in time for long enough to warrant extra investments in increasing production.

Because the old guard is at it again.

Production is actually falling this year compared to last for Samsung and Hynix (there was an article on here a few days ago?).

Just opened this year, apparently: https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-deta...

It's just an attempt to copy Taiwan and the Philippines by starting with the labor intensive low value add part of semiconductor manufacturing.

Earlier today I discovered the existence of 2TB microsd cards

Holy shit, they want three grand for a 3.84TB drive. That's absurd.

As I said, they were used, so I knew that a drive breaking was kind of an inevitability. As far as I'm aware there's no warranty, I certainly didn't pay for an extended one.

Good news though, since writing this I just started playing with dmesg and smartctl, it actually might be something with the SATA connector. At least those are still pretty cheap.

Because:

1. Factories take time to build.

2. Building factories requires capital to be invested now.

3. The return-on-capital will only be obtained in the next n years.

4. But if demand goes down, we'll have much more supply than demand, leading to a cutthroat price competition, which could prevent the factory costs from ever being recouped.

Likewise.

I was planning on upgrading my disks about a year ago, but help holding off for discounts. The AI race to the bottom, driving up prices only really started happening within the last 12 months (at least for HDDs) and now I'm too late.

I would think if you're a developing country looking to build some domestic semiconductor manufacturing expertise, it'd probably be best to start with something on the easier side. Something with closer to well-known and standard tech that can still be sold on the open market.

> In Europe they started rationing fuels

They are rationing in Slovenia to prevent 'gasoline tourism' (people taking advantage of lower taxes), not due to shortages.

why are chefs baking bread? there's buildings to construct.

> In Australia gas stations are out of diesel.

This is incorrect.

I've seen lots of articles on HN of AI startups building massive drive arrays for mass storage.

AI runs on data above all else. Gotta feed the compute.

Yeah I have no idea the direct cause. I didn't think that the SATA controllers for a hard drive took that much.

It could be a secondary effect; SSDs have gotten so expensive that people are willing to put up with spinners and thus there's an increased demand. No idea, I'm sure an economist or something will do a write up of the downstream effects of the RAM crunch causes eventually.

GenAI and/or smart glasses video? WD already sold their entire 2026 production of nearline drives for data centers.

far be it for me to question your prophetic capacities. i wonder, do you have any historical examples or logic-based arguments that our doom of nigh?

A bit tangential: it’s narratives like this which can create sudden crashes on the stock market.

Not sure why you are getting downvoted. The scariest one is the fertilizer situation which means less productive harvests, which means hunger.

This was exactly their thinking. Build an ecosystem by starting with easier things, and progressively doing more difficult things.

Oil (diesel), gas and fertilizer is the backbone of the worlds agriculture. With shortages of all 3 the food production goes down dramatically. Even if the war ends today it will take years to bring back production to previous levels. In my opinion the effects will start showing up in food prices in the next few weeks once food producing countries realize the food shortages could happen they will start restricting exports.

Yep, and it looks like they sold 26 at that price - which they did not. They sold 26 at 10x less or so.

It makes sense, at the time you bought them there was no supply crunch plus being run in RAID. Would have been a decent deal.

Nowadays I feel like an underworld scrap goblin, all the old PVRs from family and friends are being cracked open for the HDDs. Time to slink off to my cave of spinning platters.

Speculation at some point meets reality. This is when market crashes.

Because it's whataboutism which is basically propaganda. It doesn't add anything to the discussion, and if we put too much emphasis on other unrelated (but still important) issues, the site wouldn't exist at all.

Example: Why are you posting here when you could be solving world hunger? Don't you care about starving children?

Or the angle that most likely never gets discussed such as the potential effects of heavy reliance and overuse of fertilizer being a contributor to pollution than crop yields; I don't have all the sources but here's one I was reading over the weekend:

-- https://ourworldindata.org/excess-fertilizer

So, your proof is that some dire predictions in the past, about other things, by other people, were sometimes true?

I am not even predicting something.

The global oil & gas supply has been disrupted and cannot recover overnight as actual infrastructure is gone.

Someone will need to reduce consumption.

These are just facts and physics of supply & demand.

We can always debate on who will get hit more or what resources will be affected more.

The problem is your simply extrapolating not taking into account counter measures in whatever form.

I don’t blame you. It’s almost impossible to predict how this will play out.