(P)HEV - (plugin) hybrid electric vehicle
ICEV - internal combustion engine vehicle
At best, it’ll be a situation where the US market is segregated from the rest of the world: US auto consumers will be buying inferior vehicles from the rest of world that are more expensive to buy and own, since they will only be viable in the US market and will only be built in the US, Canada, and Mexico.
At worst, the US is setting itself for horrendous energy policy issues moving forward. Sure, the US produces a lot of gas and oil and will for a long time, but any sort of price shock will be leaving the US and its car-dependent economy destabilized while Europe and Asia power forward with an ever-decreasing dependence on oil and gas. The US’ endless energy wars will continue to serve as incredibly expensive endeavors that other countries don’t even need to engage in.
Just look at the number of nuclear power plant projects in progress in China. Comparatively few people in China depend on oil to get to work and travel long distances, and the amount that do is plummeting.
Not saying any particular number is wrong, just wishing it was a clearer way of writing.
Did I actually buy a Tesla? No. But this has entered as part of my "which EV" conundrum.
Protectionism makes industries weak and uncompetitive, ultimately hurting the economy of the nation doing the protectionism. The proper strategy to become competitive is to provide a small amount of protectionism so that the industry does not die, but to ruthlessly cull underperforming companies so that only the strongest survive. The continual bailouts of companies, keeping old and incompetent executives at the helm, has destroyed the US car industry.
Capitalism requires killing the underperforming companies. Until we let that happen, or at a minimum cull leadership and boards, nothing will get better. The rot is at the top.
I looked at other posts by this author and they're all sales by month charts, which are totally devoid of context as they lack historic trend data. So you have to read words to find that out, and its a slog.
I have firsthand experience starting a news company and dealing with this...
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0: https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-5-7-in-h1-2026-battery-electric-20-7-market-share/Note: I do not want this to be true. Other companies please copy what Tesla has done with both of these. You’ve had years to do this and failed.
And as for software, on the infotainment side, AA/CP are great (but not available on Tesla), and people often like having _some_ physical controls, which goes against Musk's aggressive cost-cutting.
If by software you mean FSD (Supervised), I think essentially every major auto lane-keeping + adaptive cruise covers the key use case where FSD is useful: highway slogs.
For anybody who lives outside of the USA, the Chinese EVs are the obvious answer -- they've surpassed Tesla on essentially every dimension.
For people who live inside the USA the math is different, since the government is actively interfering with the free market to protect a critical donor.
This isn't accurate - they charge slower and Plug & Charge is common in many vehicles now, including with the Tesla network - whereas Teslas cannot Plug & Charge on other networks.
“Best software” is subjective as well. Many car owners really don’t care for their software and just want to bypass the infotainment system for CarPlay and Android Auto.
That said while I appreciate their design focus their software still feels not quite as polished as Tesla’s.
As far as charging, I think that was the case even as recently as ~2 years ago. But today, the charging game is pretty decent for CCS cars. You can even charge at Tesla stations using an adapter.
10% to 70%: 5 minutes
Also, while FSD has limitations, I have found it provides enormous utility for older people, and Rivian doesn’t yet have a competing product for FSD.
The R2 base model is not as premium as the higher models but the Model Y base model is really deeply stripped down including some really barebones stuff like removing liner material from the frunk and removing some of the exterior LED lights.
So really, the price gap is $40k or more until R2s are actually delivered.
There is no honest way to manufacture a $40k price gap.
You are incorrect when you say that Rivian isn’t delivering R2s. Factually untrue. This claim of a $40k+ price gap is absurd.
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Thanks to a number of factors (new cheaper models, high gas prices, mass arrival of Chinese models, etc.), EVs are currently in high demand in Europe. Some 366,000 fully electric vehicles were registered in Europe in June, which is not only a 50% increase YoY, and the fastest growth rate this year, but also a new BEV record!
Overall, plugin vehicles were up 41% YoY, dragged down by plugin hybrids, which grew only 23%, thus placing June’s plugin share at 37%.
This difference in growth is also visible in the BEV vs. PHEV sales breakdown, with BEVs having 71% of all plugin sales in June. That placed their yearly average at 69%, which is their highest share since … 2012! Yep, like in China, it seems PHEVs are starting to lose the race to their BEVs counterparts…
With BEVs pulling the market upwards, the year-to-date share for BEVs is now at 23% (33% for PHEVs and BEVs combined), which is already higher than the 2025 final result (20% BEV share, 29% adding PHEVs). This is an encouraging sign if we want to be close to 100% PEV share by the mid-2030s.
Looking at the other fuels, there aren’t really major changes in trends in an overall market that grew 13% YoY in June to 1.4 million units. Plugless hybrids (HEVs) followed the overall trend by growing 17% YoY, to a market share of 35% — added to the 37% of plugins, that meant that in June, 72% of all cars sold in Europe had some kind of electrification, while pure ICEVs are … going down the drain.
Petrol was down 12% in June to 21% share, while diesel (-17% YoY) is now bordering on irrelevance, having just 6% of the market. A few more months, and probably i won’t even mention diesel anymore.
Looking at the best sellers in several size categories, the EV push is starting to get visible, while we are far from the EV domination we see in China, things have indeed moved on in Europe compared to last year.
Before, the only EVs that we saw on the overall podiums were Teslas. Now, the A-segment has the Leapmotor T03 as the overall 3rd placed model, closely followed by the Dacia Spring (5,676 units). Perhaps unsurprisingly. After all, the same happened in China before — it is in the city car category that EVs have the highest possibilities to have a fully 100% plugin podium sooner. First, the ICE competition is shrinking. Then, not only do we have the Leapmotor T03 already on the podium, but the new Renault Twingo is set to become a success, probably selling at higher levels than the Chinese EV. And … with a new Dacia Spring set to land soon, we have three competitive electric city cars ready to take over the podium.
Oh! And let’s not forget that a new Panda city car (Pandina?) is set to start in 2027, both in BEV and ICE versions. Speaking of which, adding an ICE version to the new Panda is another bad decision from Stellantis product planners, because while it is true that the 500e lost sales as years went by, it wasn’t because people wanted to go back to ICE cars, but because other, better, cheaper EVs started to land on the market, cannibalizing the 500e’s sales.
So, if I were them, I would make the new generation 100% BEV and keep on selling the old ICE generation for petrol diehards, as the “Panda Classic” or whatever.
Looking at the other segments, the B-segment is still ICE-heavy, with only the #3 Peugeot 208 having some degree of electrification (16% of sales are from the BEV version), the C-segment is a bit more electrified (#2 VW Golf is 14% PHEV, and #3 VW Tiguan is 32% PHEV), but it is the full size category where electrification is significant, with the #1 Mercedes E-Class having 36% of sales coming from the PHEV version, the #2 BMW 5 Series being 89% electrified (either with the BEV i5 or the PHEV versions), and the #3 BMW X5 having 28% of its sales coming from the PHEV version. And the 4th best selling model in this category was the fully electric Audi A6 e-tron, with 3,850 units.
So, A, D, and E segments have good electrification perspectives, but the all-important B and C segments, the most important in Europe, are the laggards.
Looking at the best selling EV models, the big news this month was Tesla winning 1st and 2nd place. BYD had 3rd place to itself thanks to the Atto 2 (BYD Yuan Up in Euro-spec). Here’s a more detailed analysis of the top 5 EVs this month:
#1 Tesla Model Y — Tesla’s midsize crossover is back in the driver’s seat thanks to 34,480 registrations in June, which represented a particularly strong high tide_._ Deliveries jumped 43% YoY and led to the nameplate’s best result since March 2023. And there’s still no Model Y L helping the brand along…. Such a high number of deliveries meant that Tesla’s midsizer was the #1 model in the overall market, beating the #2 Dacia Sandero by a sizeable 9,000 units. The crossover was the overall best seller across a number of European markets in June — it was #1 in the United Kingdom, Iceland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark and Norway. With Model Y prices starting at €40,000, and after six years on the market, the crossover still offers an appealing package. Currently, you buy a Tesla with your wallet/head, not your heart. Which is exactly the kind of buyer that is now searching for EVs. Many of these people simply want to lower their running costs by switching from ICEVs to BEVs. (Also, it’s why they are so popular with Ubers and such.)
#2 Tesla Model 3 — Tesla’s sedan was 2nd in June thanks to 18,028 registrations, a significant 67% increase YoY that allowed it to be 7th in the overall European market. Benefiting from the same tailwinds as the Model Y (mass delivery of the standard version, a surge in EV demand), the 10-year-old sedan is running along. It has a lot of demand now that price-conscious buyers are in the market and its prices, starting around €35,000, place it, a midsize sedan, in competition with models one segment below, compact hatchbacks. While the heart of the midsize car market is probably lost for the Model 3, a new segment of buyers, somewhere between the C and D segments, is giving it a second wind. As of this moment, it seems Tesla’s sedan could recover its podium position in 2026 … which is no mean feat for a 10-year-old model wearing a body type (sedan) not popular in Europe.
#3 BYD Atto 2 (BEV+PHEV) — The Chinese SUV hit another record performance last month, 13,100 registrations, mostly thanks to the new PHEV version. Why so popular in Europe? Besides not having real competition in the small PHEV category, the top range version has a 18 kWh battery, providing a usable range (90 km/56 mi). Additionally, it has increasingly important vehicle-to-load (V2L) capability. With the upcoming Dolphin G PHEV small hatchback using the same powertrain, expect the Shenzhen make to have another representative on the European table soon, especially considering that the new hatchback will be made in Hungary.
#4 BMW iX1/X1 PHEV — The German twins are in cruise control, winning another top 5 presence in June thanks to 11,778 registrations. Benefitting from favorable lease rates to help things along, the BMW crossovers are the brand’s bread and butter models, at least until the Neue Klasse models (i3 and iX3) get up to full speed. With a deep refresh coming to BMW’s compact models later this year, promising to transform them into baby Neue Klasse vehicles_,_ expect both, but the iX1 in particular, to upgrade their specs. That will make them more interesting than the current versions and allow the Bavarian brand to keep its compact models as podium material.
#5 Renault 5 (including Alpine A290) — Renault’s star player delivered 10,785 sales in June, with the iconic hatchback increasing its sales year on year by 38%, thus backing previous optimistic statements from their representatives. The truth is that the French manufacturer has done its homework, and while others are scrambling with what to do next, Renault is now reaping the profits of its EV strategy. Sure, no matter how attractive the 5 is, the truth is that in 2026, its space in the market will be squeezed, not only by external competition like VW’s own take on the R5 formula, the ID.Polo, but also by internal competition, with the equally cute new Twingo potentially stealing sales from below. That is why Renault is taking a page from its Chinese counterparts and will upgrade its R5 and R4 in a few months with more efficient motors and LFP batteries, because cute design can only take you so far (just look at the Fiat 500e). The real factor to make the French twins true volume models over the years is meeting constantly evolving buyer expectations — regarding specs, value for money, and pricing.
Outside the top 5, there were a number of highlights to mention.
Starting with BMW, we have another record result from the new BMW iX3 (in 9th place with 8,439 registrations). One wonders if the midsize SUV has already reached its cruising speed or there will be even higher volume months ahead. Regardless of what might happen to the iX3, I am now curious about the production ramp-up of the upcoming BMW i3. Will the new midsize sedan also reach top 10 status?
In the Mercedes stable, its star player, the CLA EV, continued in near-record territory, having clocked 6,676 registrations, while the three-pointed-star brand continued to ramp up both the new GLB EV seven-seater and the GLC EV midsizer, with both now starting to reach significant volumes (3,622 units for the former, 3,116 for the latter).
Volvo also had a good month, with both the EX30 (16th, 5,585 registrations) and the XC60 PHEV (14th, 6,134 registrations) performing year-best results. This is a positive sign for the Swedes, as these good results happen at a time when many clients are waiting for deliveries of the much anticipated new EX60. Expect Volvo to have a positive second half of the year as the new electric SUV starts to be delivered in volume.
Finally, a reference is due for the return of the veteran Dacia Spring. Thanks to 5,676 registrations, its best result since October 2023, it returned to the table at #15. With a new generation coming soon, expect the Spring to once again become a regular feature on the table, as a more rugged-looking counterpart to the new Renault Twingo.
Outside the top 20, in such a strong month, there was plenty to talk about, with good news almost everywhere:
Looking at the 2026 ranking, the major change in the top positions was the three-position jump of the Tesla Model 3 into the runner-up spot. And with a higher than expected delivery peak, Tesla’s sedan managed even to (barely) remove the Skoda Elroq from the second place.
With the competition experiencing different kinds of headwinds in the second half od the year (the Skoda Elroq suffering from the competition of its smaller sibling Epiq, BMW compact crossovers going through a refresh later this year, the Renault 5 witnessing the landing of new small hatchbacks — the VW ID.Polo, Cupra Raval, etc.) and the BYD Atto 2 being too far away to be a real threat, all of a sudden the Model 3 seems to be the strongest candidate for the silver medal, won by it the last time in 2024.
Bring on the popcorn, because this looks to be fun!
As for the remaining changes, the BYD Atto 2 continued to rise, going up to 8th. BYD’s small crossover is set to become the brand’s best seller in Europe — although, the upcoming Dolphin G could steal some sales from it.
On the second half of the table, the Mercedes CLA EV and Leapmotor T03 climbed one position each, to #11 and #12, respectively, while the Audi Q6 was up to #17. It was a positive month for Volvo, with the XC60 PHEV going up to #14 while the small EX30 rejoined the table in 19th.
Also set to join the table soon is the #21 BMW iX3. With the midsize SUV riding high, and being only some 200 units below the Citroen e-C3, I wouldn’t be surprised if the hot new electric SUV from Bavaria replaced the French supermini in July….
A few notes regarding the overall manufacturer ranking — the winners are currently Tesla and the Chinese.
As for the plugin auto brand ranking, the leader, Volkswagen, remained in the lead, but it lost significant share (8.9%, down from 9.3% in May). Sure, it still holds a comfortable advantage over rising BYD (7.9%, up 0.1%), and its new small EVs (VW ID.Polo, ID.Tiguan, etc.), should help it recover sales, but…. Volkswagen cannot afford to miss any more chances. Or else the company will get BYD on its back. In its home market. And if you can’t win at home,…
BMW (7%) was displaced from the last place on the podium by a rising Tesla (7.1% share, up from 6.3% in May). It is interesting to see the difference in Tesla’s performance as a brand comparing 2026 to the three previous times that Tesla had a #1 plus #2 lead in the model table — in 2022, 2023, and 2024. In those years, Tesla got gold and silver in the model table and at the same time won the manufacturer titles.
Now, with the same #1 plus #2 lead in the model table, Tesla is only 3rd among manufacturers. And not by a lot…. So, what is the difference? Lineup depth. Tesla has the usual two best sellers. BMW has 11 models on sale in Europe. And BYD has 17….
In 5th we have Mercedes (5.8%, down from 5.9% in May). It held steady in the 5th position, actually gaining a little bit of distance over #6 Audi (5.5%, down from 5.7% in May).
Thanks to good results across the lineup, #8 Renault (4.9%, up 0.1%) is on the way up and could start to pose a threat to #7 Skoda (5,3%) soon.
Arranging things by automotive group, Volkswagen Group is firmly in the lead, but it has lost share, now at 24% share, a significant 0.8% drop. Still, with plenty of fresh metal coming soon, expect the German OEM to rebound soon_._
There was a position change in the runner-up spot, with troubled Stellantis (8.3%, down from 8.6% in May) losing the silver medal position to BMW Group (8.6%, up 0.1%). The multinational OEM’s drops seem to have no end in sight, and it could even lose its podium position this year, as a rising BYD (7.9%) is now just 0.4% share behind Stellantis.
So … maybe now is the time for Stellantis management to wake up and smell the coffee?
Outside the top 5, #6 Geely is rising (6.9%, up from 6.7% in May), but for the time being, it is still far from #5 Hyundai–Kia (7.3%) threatening it.
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